Hedera’s native token, HBAR, is once again under pressure after failing to sustain its short-term bullish momentum. Recent trading activity suggests that the asset may be at a critical juncture, with its $0.188 support level playing a pivotal role in determining whether the next move will be a rebound or a deeper correction.
Over the past week, HBAR has faced consistent selling pressure as bearish sentiment grows stronger across the broader crypto market. Technical indicators, trading volume, and derivatives data all point to increasing downside risk — yet there are still signs of potential recovery if key levels hold and institutional demand continues to rise through ETF inflows.
Market Overview: Declining Volume and Bearish Sentiment
At the time of writing, Hedera’s HBAR is trading around $0.1925, down roughly 6% in the last 24 hours. More concerning is the sharp 38% decline in trading volume, which has fallen to $512 million. This indicates that both retail and institutional traders are reducing their market activity — a typical sign of fading confidence during consolidation or downtrend phases.
Derivative market data adds to this cautious tone. According to CoinGlass, traders have increased their short positions on HBAR, signaling an expectation of continued weakness. Open interest is skewed toward the downside, with $7.24 million worth of short positions compared to only $2.90 million in longs. This imbalance suggests that market participants are betting on a further dip below the current range.
The most notable liquidation zones are concentrated around $0.1888 (support) and $0.1972 (resistance). If HBAR drops below the $0.1888 mark, approximately $2.90 million in long positions could be liquidated, potentially accelerating downward momentum.
Technical Analysis: Downtrend Still Intact
A closer look at the daily chart reveals that HBAR remains firmly within a descending channel pattern — a technical structure characterized by lower highs and lower lows. The token is also trading below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which reinforces the prevailing bearish trend.
The formation of a series of bearish candlesticks further confirms the continuation of downward momentum. If the daily candle closes below $0.188, this could trigger a significant sell-off, potentially sending HBAR toward the $0.142 level — representing a decline of over 24% from current prices.
The Average Directional Index (ADX), a measure of trend strength, currently reads 34.24, which is well above the key threshold of 25. This confirms strong directional movement and suggests that the ongoing trend is not losing steam. Meanwhile, the Supertrend indicator remains red, indicating that the bearish setup is still dominant.
The Importance of the $0.188 Support Zone
Why is the $0.188 support level so crucial? Historically, this price area has acted as both a consolidation and rebound zone for HBAR. It served as support during multiple retracements earlier in 2025, preventing deeper declines and often triggering short-term recoveries.
If HBAR can hold above this level, it may indicate that the market has found a temporary bottom. A rebound from this zone could see prices retesting the $0.1972 resistance, and potentially higher toward $0.21 if bullish momentum builds.
However, a confirmed breakdown below $0.188 could invalidate this scenario and pave the way for a steeper decline toward $0.142, where the next significant liquidity pocket resides.
ETF Inflows: A Glimmer of Hope
Despite the bearish technical setup, there are positive developments on the fundamental front. The recent approval of the first-ever HBAR spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States has opened the door for traditional investors to gain exposure to Hedera without directly holding the token.
Canary Capital, the ETF’s issuer, recorded approximately $45 million in inflows within the first few days of trading — a strong sign of institutional interest in the asset. This influx of capital has provided some stability amid broader market weakness and could act as a buffer against extreme volatility.
Historically, ETF inflows have played a crucial role in supporting digital asset prices. If this trend continues, HBAR could see renewed buying pressure, helping to offset short-term bearish sentiment.
On-Chain and Ecosystem Growth
Beyond price action, Hedera’s underlying network fundamentals remain solid. Transaction volumes on the Hedera Hashgraph network continue to grow, driven by enterprise partnerships and increased adoption in sectors such as supply chain management, tokenization, and decentralized identity verification.
Nonprofits and institutions have also started integrating Hedera’s technology for real-world use cases, including micro-payments and carbon credit tracking. These developments support the long-term value proposition of HBAR as a scalable, low-cost network for global applications.
However, the short-term market tends to react more strongly to technical and sentiment-driven factors, meaning that these positive fundamentals may take longer to influence price action.
Market Outlook: Two Scenarios Ahead
If HBAR sustains its position above the $0.188 support, traders can anticipate a potential short-term rebound toward $0.21 or even $0.23, where the next resistance zones lie. Such a move would likely coincide with renewed ETF inflows and improving market sentiment around large-cap altcoins.
On the other hand, failure to defend $0.188 could trigger cascading liquidations and a rapid descent toward $0.142. The speed of this decline would depend on derivatives market positioning and overall liquidity in the broader crypto market.
For now, the path of least resistance remains to the downside until HBAR demonstrates a clear reversal signal — such as a strong bullish engulfing candle or a breakout above the descending channel.
Conclusion
Hedera’s HBAR is currently navigating one of its most critical technical zones of 2025. With strong bearish signals dominating the charts, traders are keeping a close watch on the $0.188 support level, which could decide the token’s short-term fate.
While ETF inflows and expanding network utility offer hope for recovery, market participants remain cautious as HBAR continues to test the boundaries of its long-term support structure. Whether this level holds or breaks will likely determine if HBAR embarks on a new upward cycle — or faces another leg down toward deeper correction levels.
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